True Count

True count is the running count adjusted for the size of the shoe. It scales the raw count to account for how many decks are still in play.

A running count of +6 means very different things in different situations:

• +6 with 6 decks remaining: True count = +1. Roughly a 0.5% player edge over basic strategy. Slightly favorable but not a big bet.
• +6 with 1 deck remaining: True count = +6. About a 3% player edge. A serious betting opportunity.

The same raw running count carries six times the player advantage at the end of the shoe vs. the start. Without true count adjustment, counters would dramatically over- or under-bet.

Most casinos display a discard tray on the felt where the dealer places played cards. Counters estimate decks remaining by looking at the discard tray:

• If half the decks are visible in the discard tray (3 of 6 decks played), then 3 decks are remaining.
• Round to the nearest half-deck for accuracy. Some counters round to the nearest quarter-deck for single- and double-deck games.

Estimating decks accurately is one of the harder skills in card counting. With practice, counters develop visual heuristics for typical discard-tray heights.

Single-deck games don't need true count adjustment — running count and true count are effectively identical when only one deck is in play. This is one reason why single-deck games are theoretically easier to count, even though casinos use 6:5 payouts and other countermeasures to compensate.

Counters typically use a "betting ramp" tied to true count. A common Hi-Lo ramp:

• True count ≤ +1: 1 unit (table minimum)
• True count +2: 2 units
• True count +3: 4 units
• True count +4: 6 units
• True count +5 or higher: 8–10 units (capped to avoid pit-boss heat)

Aggressive bet ramps draw more attention from casino surveillance. The art of counting is finding the balance between maximum edge and minimum scrutiny.

True count tracking, betting ramps, and Illustrious 18 deviation drills ship in Blackjack Navigator Pro's v1.1 release.

• Running Count — the raw tally before adjustment (#running-count)
• Hi-Lo — the most-used counting system that produces the running count
• Card Counting — the broader practice
• Penetration — how far the dealer goes before reshuffling (#penetration)
• Full glossary